Richmond has lost a valuable tool for measuring COVID’s spread as sites such as WastewaterSCAN and Verily Public Health, which had been public sources for wastewater data across west Contra Costa County, stopped making it available in late June.
Wastewater data is currently the key way to measure COVID infections’ spread since most people are now testing for it at home, and public health agencies aren’t tracking the results.
Meanwhile, as increased levels of the virus detected in wastewater earlier this summer predicted, there’s been a steady increase in COVID cases in Richmond, statewide and across the nation. On Tuesday, Contra Costa Health began recommending that residents wear masks in crowded indoor settings due to “evidence of increased COVID-19 infections throughout the Bay Area.”
Richmond, which relied on WastewaterSCAN data, isn’t the only place that has lost its access to this information. WastewaterSCAN, which received funding from Google co-founder Sergey Brin’s Family Foundation along with Michael Bloomberg’s Bloomberg Philanthropies; and Verily, which was contracted by WastewaterSCAN, had been releasing data for 194 sites across the U.S., but cut back to 151 sites in late June due to resource constraints. California had about 60 monitoring sites, but about half of them were cut.
In June, while Richmond’s data was still publicly available, infectious disease expert and UC San Francisco educator Dr Peter Chin-Hong predicted that Richmond would soon see a surge in COVID cases due to the virus’s increased presence in the city’s wastewater. He’s confident there’s still a lot of COVID spreading in the city because “there’s so much COVID around” that the “spread has become more uniform” among Bay Area communities.
According to an emailed statement from WastewaterSCAN, in the Bay Area, “Wastewater concentrations for Covid-19 are up 55% compared to June 2024.” On average, the levels are “as high as the winter peak earlier this year.”
“It seems like everyone either has COVID or knows someone who has COVID,” said Chin-Hong.
Chin-Hong said he thinks in the coming weeks, as summer travel starts winding down, “communities will look very different from each other” in terms of COVID spread, and he’s hopeful that COVID cases will lessen. Due to the data loss though, assessing COVID risk in Richmond will become more difficult. Chin-Hong called the data loss “disappointing” and a “step in a not great direction.”
“I think the data is important for understanding the current environmental risk,” said Chin-Hong. “The more data we lose, the harder it is.”
Richmond resident Angela Jarman, who has chronic illnesses that put her at high risk of more severe complications from COVID, said she and her partner had relied upon wastewater data to assess risk for engaging in activities like meeting friends and family without asking them to test first.
“Just like checking the weather to know if I need a coat versus a sundress,” Jarman said. “It helped us feel prepared.”
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“Just like checking the weather to know if I need a coat versus a sundress. It helped us feel prepared.”
— Richmond resident Angela Jarman, on losing access to local COVID wastewater data
Since both of Contra Costa County’s sites — West County Wastewater District, and Contra Costa Sanitary District — and four-out-of-five of neighboring Alameda County’s sites no longer make the information available to the public, Jarman said she feels she’s been “in the dark with regards to COVID spread in our area.”
East Richmond Heights resident Tierney Hamilton shares Jarman’s frustration. She feels Richmond residents have “lost the best indicator we had” about COVID spread.
“The data guided how I protect myself,” Hamilton said. “When virus levels have been low, I’m not concerned with going to a bar or a restaurant. When wastewater levels have been high, I don’t go to the gym, and I wear a mask when I go to the market.”
Chin-Hong suggests that people living in an area where COVID wastewater data isn’t available look at data from a nearby region to assess their risk of catching the virus.
“I think you’d want to look at two sites that are closest to you and compare them,” Chin-Hong said. “If they both show high levels, you could assume the risk is high. If there’s a big difference between the two, that might mean communities are starting to look different from each other, and you could make a judgment call to guide your decisions depending on whether you or someone you live with is at high risk for getting ill.”
The closest wastewater facilities to Richmond that are still making data available are in Vallejo, San Francisco and Marin. All are detecting high levels of the virus in wastewater.
Stay current on vaccine to reduce COVID risk
Chin-Hong said staying current on vaccines can help reduce the potential harm of COVID. While the vaccine can help prevent people from catching the virus, particularly soon after it’s been given, Chin-Hong said the most important thing it does is reduce the severity of symptoms and “keep you out of the hospital.”
Long COVID, where people still suffer symptoms months or years after their original infection, is on the decline but is still possible for even healthy people to get. Vaccines reduce the risk of getting long COVID by more than 50% though. The latest studies show those who are fully vaccinated have a 3.5% chance of getting long COVID if they catch the virus, while unvaccinated people have a 7.7% chance.
While about 85% of Contra Costa residents got the original series of COVID-19 vaccines, most residents are now not currently fully vaccinated. The latest round of vaccines were first made available in September 2023, but more than 75% of Contra Costa residents haven’t received it.
Chin-Hong said vaccines are especially important for those over 65 and those who are medically vulnerable, and recommends anyone in that category get vaccinated as soon as possible. He acknowledges, though, “people are having a hard time getting it now” as supplies of the current vaccine are running low.
A search on MyTurn.gov shows that the current vaccine is still available in some cities, such as San Francisco and San Jose, though not in Richmond. Those who are uninsured can still get the vaccine through the end of August using the CDC’s Bridge Access Program.
Emailed statements to Richmondside from Kaiser Permanente and Sutter Health said that the current vaccine is very limited or unavailable at their Bay Area facilities. According to Chin-Hong, and Kaiser’s and Sutter’s statements, a new vaccine will become widely available in the Bay Area in September for people 6 months or older.
Chin-Hong recommends that people who are relatively healthy wait till October to get the new vaccine because “you want your antibodies to peak when you need it most.” Vaccine effectiveness fades over time, and there have been COVID spikes each winter around the holidays.
Chin-Hong also recommends still wearing a well-fitting mask. He says he carries one around and uses it when he feels the COVID risk is above his personal threshold, such as when he’s in crowded indoor settings, places with poor ventilation, or around people who appear ill.
“It’s empowering carrying it around,” Chin-Hong said. “And it helps not just against COVID but with colds and other things that are going around.”
Chin-Hong said if you do get COVID, antivirals such as Paxlovid can help patients recover and reduce their risk of suffering long-term effects. It’s important to plan ahead in case you do get sick with COVID, according to Chin-Hong, to determine how you will get medicine and which one you will take. He recommends talking to your doctor about possible drug interactions. If you’re traveling, it might even make sense to take antivirals with you, especially if you’re over 65 or medically vulnerable.
COVID rates ebb and flow, and Chin-Hong is already anticipating a winter surge.
“I know people are very tired of this in and out,” Chin-Hong said. “I hope we can just simplify our approach and get vaccinated in the fall so the winter will be better.”
