Ellen Seskin stared at her COVID test strip in disbelief when she tested positive for the virus last week.
“Not again!” said Seskin, who lives in the North and East neighborhood. It’s her second time contracting the illness.
It’s possible other Richmond residents may soon find themselves in the same predicament. Higher levels of COVID have been detected in Richmond’s wastewater, and an infectious disease expert said this means the city could possibly see more cases starting in July.
“Nobody really knows, but Richmond may be on the way to higher levels of COVID-19,” said Dr. Peter Chin-Hong, an infectious disease expert at the University of California, San Francisco.
Higher COVID levels were detected at Richmond’s West County Wastewater District plant, which is among facilities being monitored by Stanford University’s WastewaterSCAN (Sewer Coronavirus Alert Network) project.
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Wastewater tells us before we see cases in the community, so it is like the canary in the coal mine.
— Dr. Peter Chin-Hong, infectious disease specialist, UCSF
“The pattern usually is that levels (of the amount in wastewater and number of cases) go up to a peak and then plateau and then go down,” Chin-Hong said. If there ends up being a July peak, Richmond cases would be expected to then decrease in August, he said.
“Wastewater tells us before we see cases in the community, so it is like the canary in the coal mine,” Chin-Hong said.
The number of total COVID cases in Contra Costa County is no longer tracked because most people test at home, and those results don’t get reported.
While the amount of the virus being detected in Richmond’s wastewater isn’t as high as in San Francisco or Santa Clara County, “We know it’s still higher than it was a few months ago,” Chin-Hong told Richmondside.
The Stanford project monitors wastewater treatment sites across the Bay Area and the country because when a person is infected with COVID-19, the virus shows up in their feces soon after they become infected.
Virus levels are up at 42% of Bay Area wastewater sites being monitored, according to Amanda Bidwell, a data analyst in Stanford’s Civil and Environmental Engineering Department who works with WastewaterSCAN.
Anecdotal evidence seems to support the numbers.
“I know two other people in my neighborhood who have it (COVID-19). And others who just got over it,” Seskin said.
This year’s Bay Area wastewater increase began in May, compared to a 2023 spike that began in June, Bidwell said.
Why are COVID numbers rising again?
Identifying the reasons for the increase in infections isn’t easy, a Contra Costa Health spokesperson said.
“Waning immunity may play a role. Also, the latest variant is more transmissible (as all new variants are),” said spokesperson Will Harper, in an email.
Harper’s comment rang true with Seskin.
“I’ve been careful, but not careful enough,” she said. She was surprised when she tested positive June 17, especially as she had received the latest COVID vaccine in September.
“I (have) had every vaccine they would give me,” the 69-year-old said.
While vaccines may not prevent infection, people who are up to date on their vaccinations have a lower risk of severe illness, hospitalization and death from COVID, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
With the virus on the upswing, it’s important for people over age 65 and those with compromised immune systems to be vaccinated, Chin-Hong said.
“We want to keep them out of the hospital,” he said.
For young people, keeping current on COVID vaccines may be less important because they benefit from built-up immunity from prior infections, Chin-Hong said.
Immunity wanes faster in older people, he said.
“Younger people could get the vaccine if they haven’t had it, just to give them some force-field of protection if they are going on a trip and want to lower their risk of getting infected,” he said.
Paxlovid is a prescription treatment for mild-to-moderate COVID-19 in adults who are at high risk of being hospitalized with severe COVID.
Vaccines still the best defense against COVID, doctors say
Vaccinations are the No. 1 line of defense against COVID. If it has been four months since your last one, it’s not a bad idea to get another one, Chin-Hong said.
The second line of defense, if you do get infected and are over 65 and/or are immunocompromised, is to consider taking Paxlovid, Chin-Hong said, especially if you’re unvaccinated.
“Talk to your physician about drug interactions, but if you haven’t gotten the vaccine, especially, take Paxlovid. It will keep you away from the hospital,” he said.
Contra Costa County COVID vaccines
Contra Costa Health immunization clinics offer free vaccines to uninsured people and for children who qualify.
To schedule an appointment at the West County Health Center, 13601 San Pablo Ave., San Pablo, visit the online immunization appointment page or call (510) 231-9400. (Walk-ins are allowed, but priority is given to those with appointments.)
Local pharmacies also give vaccines. Check the pharmacy website.
If you have private health insurance or Medi-Cal, contact your regular medical provider to get a COVID vaccine.
While taking precautions such as wearing a mask in crowded places can seem like a dreary hangover from 2020, when the pandemic first hit, it’s better than getting infected, as Seskin’s experience testifies.
“I’m coughing. It’s horrible,” she said, adding that the last time she had it her symptoms were much milder.
“(The first time) I had a fever, but I felt fine in two days,” Seskin said. “(This time) I’m still pretty sick now, on day two.”
She said she planned to quarantine for at least five days, or until she felt better.
This is in line with the CDC’s updated Respiratory Virus Guidance. It’s recommended that sick people stay home and away from others until at least 24 hours after symptoms are getting better overall, and they have not had a fever and are not using fever-reducing medication.
Depending how long symptoms last, this self-quarantine period could be shorter, the same, or longer than was advised earlier in the pandemic, according to the CDC.
While Seskin’s experience hasn’t been a walk in the park, COVID is no longer as serious of a public health threat as it was in March 2020 when Bay Area counties imposed mandatory lockdowns.
“It’s important to keep in mind that we are in a much different place than we were during the height of the pandemic. There is widespread protection in the community because of vaccination or prior infection or a combination of both,” said county health spokesperson Harper.
“So, while we are seeing an increase of the virus in wastewater, we are not seeing an increase in hospitalizations. And if you look at the California Department of Public Health respiratory virus data, you can see that COVID death rates are much lower than in the first years of the pandemic,” he said.
In other words, it could be, and has been, much worse — and so there’s much to be thankful for, according to Harper.
Here I am after my first full week of Covid. My throat no longer hurts and I’m no longer congested, although I still have a dry cough and I’m still really tired. I tested negative two days in a row, so according to the CDC I can go out without wearing a mask. I’m so tired, though, that I’m not really going anywhere. My husband did watch television in the same room with me last night, and he was in the same room helping keep me warm, so things are looking up!
Pretty sure the CDC actually says to still wear a mask for 10 days. Rapid antigen tests aren’t always accurate. Especially if you still have symptoms, please don’t spread this further.
Hi Angela, According to the CDC’s recent posting in March: “Once people (who’ve had COVID recently) resume normal activities, they are encouraged to take additional prevention strategies for the next 5 days to curb disease spread, such as taking more steps for cleaner air, enhancing hygiene practices, wearing a well-fitting mask, keeping a distance from others, and/or getting tested for respiratory viruses.” (https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2024/p0301-respiratory-virus.html)
This is great, Janis. I’m looking forward to much more Richmond coverage from you in Richmondside!
Thanks for this article. I know there have been a few cases at work recently (in Richmond), and a neighbor also just tested positive this week. I find the wastewater testing really interesting and I hope that we can use that data to prevent the predicted surge rather than just watch it unfold.
Our community needs access to Covid at-home tests. Kaiser is now charging $10 for a single test. For folks who need to test before they connect with immunologically compromised friends, family or co-workers, this cost is an unnecessary burden.
Thank you for this article, Janis. Interesting how many people who are fully vaccinated and boosted keep getting covid. The CDC has acknowledged that the covid vaccines don’t prevent infection or transmission, so they’re clearly not effective. Not safe either, if you look at the Vaccine Adverse Events Reporting System data, shown to represent only a small fraction of all adverse events, due to rampant noncompliance with reporting requirements. Do people think turning various organs of your body in to a spike protein factory indefinitely is really a good idea? Big Pharma has spent tons of money convincing the medical establishment that it is indeed, while raking in billions in profits. Why not instead focus on nurturing a robust natural immune system, with tried and true strategies like healthy diet, exercise, stress reduction, good relationships, staying home when sick, staying away from sick people, washing hands? Oops, no profit for Big Pharma in that, but huge dividends for ordinary people.
“For young people, keeping current on COVID vaccines may be less important because they benefit from built-up immunity from prior infections, Chin-Hong said.”
That’s such an irresponsible comment to make from a health official! As long as everyone can spread it to more vulnerable, it’s important for EVERYONE to get vaccinated. And young people are not ‘building up immunity’, that simply does not happen with covid at all, reinfections would not be so common if this was true and neither would long covid. But it can happen to anyone including children, 6 million of them if I remember correctly.
If the way to get immunity is to… keep repeatedly getting the same virus, my sweet summer child, that isn’t immunity at all. Each infection increases risk of long term damage and long covid, covid causes cumulative damage and nearly every published peer reviewed study has shown that.
Please stop taking quotes from the same covid minimizers and look to the *reputable* studies and epidemiologists instead or we’ll never get out of this vicious cycle, and our healthcare system may eventually collapse due to the tens of millions with long covid who’s numbers keep growing. Including among health care workers.