About this story
Bay Area transit agencies say if Prop. RTM fails on Nov. 3, they plan to make significant service cuts.
A Richmondside reporter and photographer spent a day riding local buses and BART trains to see what riders had to say about the proposed reductions.
We spoke to a wide variety of people who rely heavily on BART and AC Transit to get to and from work and school.
If voters reject a Bay Area transit tax on the Nov. 3 ballot and BART ends up reducing red line service to Richmond, riders such as Aaron Adams fear they might find themselves scrambling to get home from their jobs in San Francisco.
Adams, a Richmond resident, catches BART at the El Cerrito del Norte station at least twice a week to commute to his evening job at a bank in the city’s financial district.
He works from 2:30 p.m. to 11 p.m., so he relies on BART’s nighttime service to get home.
However, BART officials say if the half-cent per dollar sales tax increase fails to pass, they are considering ending service to Richmond at 9 p.m.
Adams told Richmondside that would mean he would either have to drive to work, have someone pick him up in San Francisco or shell out extra money for an on-demand ride service, which could cost an estimated $50 a pop, depending on peak hour price fluctuations. Right now his one-way BART ticket is just $5.90.
“I wouldn’t like it,” he said. “BART is convenient, and it’s relatively cheap.”
Transit officials estimate that about 4% of BART’s weekday average ridership (212,000) — more than 8,000 riders — live in Richmond. Only San Francisco, Berkeley and Oakland have higher ridership percentages.
About 2,800 riders use the Richmond BART station on an average weekday, an increase of almost 10% from a year ago. Another 4,500 use the El Cerrito del Norte station, an increase of more than 11% from a year ago. About 2,500 catch trains at the El Cerrito Plaza station, an increase of 9% from a year ago.
BART riders won’t be the only ones to feel a pinch if the tax doesn’t pass. AC Transit says it needs the revenue to help alleviate an annual $50 million annual deficit expected by 2028.
possible transit cuts
About 6% of AC Transit’s 136,000 daily riders have Richmond ZIP codes. That translates to another 8,000 Richmond residents who use this form of public transit every day. About 27% of those riders use both AC Transit and BART.
Those figures don’t include the nearly 5,000 people who ride WestCAT buses in western Contra Costa County on a daily basis. That service would also likely be impacted.
Officials say these figures make it clear that Richmond residents will feel the pain if the transit tax fails.
“You need to be able to get to where you need to go. If you don’t, you lose money and you lose time,” said Jeff Cretan, spokesperson for Connect Bay Area, an organization that is leading the drive to pass the transit tax.
The basics of Proposition RTM, the transit tax
The transit tax, which is labeled Proposition RTM on the November ballot, would be instituted in Contra Costa, Alameda, San Francisco, San Mateo and Santa Clara counties.
Richmond’s sales tax would rise to 10.25 cents per dollar if the initiative is approved. El Cerrito’s sales tax would jump to 10.75 cents per dollar. The sales tax in San Pablo would increase to 10 cents per dollar. (Residents of that city are also considering another sales tax, Measure R, a temporary half-cent sales tax for city services. After five years it would be reduced to a quarter-cent for five years and would then be retired.)
The transit sales tax hike would start in April 2027 and last for 14 years. The measure is expected to raise nearly $1 billion per year to fund transit agencies such as BART, AC Transit, WestCAT, the San Francisco Muni bus system and Caltrain.
Opponents of Proposition RTM include the Contra Costa Taxpayers Association. The organization has posted an analysis of what it calls the negative impacts of the measure.
Among other things, the association points out that transit agencies in the five affected counties already receive $6 billion a year in taxes, tolls and government subsidies on top of the revenue they take in from fares, parking fees and advertisements at stations and on trains.
“State and local officials should figure out how to get people where they need to go with that money before demanding more,” the association states.
Marc Joffe, president of the taxpayers association, told Richmondside earlier this year that transit agencies should cut expenses rather than raise taxes.
He said BART’s plans to extend service to San Jose and Santa Clara should be scrapped as should Caltrain’s proposal to extend service to Oracle Park in San Francisco.
Joffe also noted that there are 27 transit agencies in the region, all with their own executives and labor agreements. He thinks consolidating some of these agencies could be a wise cost-cutting move.
However, Cretan said there is no way that expenses could be reduced enough to cover the budget deficits facing transit agencies.
“You simply cannot cut your way out of this,” he said.
How transit cuts could impact west Contra Costa riders
Connect Bay Area has projected deep cuts in transit services if Proposition RTM fails. Among them:
- BART might reduce train service by 70%, closing 15 stations and shutting down two lines.
- AC Transit might cut bus service by 16%.
- SF Muni could reduce service by at least 30%, cancel at least 20 bus routes, end regular evening service and cut cable car services.
- Caltrain might only operate trains once an hour, end service by 9 p.m. on weekdays and eliminate all weekend service.
Earlier this year, the BART board of directors approved an Alternative Service Plan to erase a projected $376 million deficit for next fiscal year if no new funds become available.
BART board director Barnali Ghosh, whose district includes Richmond, said the alternative service plan includes service cuts, station closures and fare increases as well as a 40% cut in system support services. As many as 1,200 of BART’s 4,000 employees could be laid off.
“A combination of solutions will be needed and each one comes with their own risks,” Ghosh told Richmondside.
A fare increase would impact riders such as Adams, the San Francisco bank employee.
“I’d have to live with it because I still have to take BART,” he told Richmondside while waiting for a train at the El Cerrito station.
Asher B., an El Cerrito resident and UC Berkeley student, takes BART from the El Cerrito del Norte station to campus every weekday. He also rides the train when he visits his family in Oakland on the weekends.
“BART is nice, and it’s pretty cheap,” he told Richmondside.
BART’s alternative service plan calls for the red line from Richmond to San Francisco International Airport to operate only in peak directions during peak hours, ending at 9 p.m.
Train frequency could also be reduced on the red line, from every 10 minutes to every 30 minutes.
Ghosh notes that orange line service, from Richmond to the North Berryessa/San Jose station, would also be reduced.
Like Adams, Harry Graham, a San Pablo resident, would need to make alternative plans if the Richmond lines don’t run as late.
Graham, who works as a security guard in Oakland from 3 p.m. to 11 p.m., could still get to work on either BART or AC Transit if service is cut, but getting home would be a different story.
“I’d have to pay big money to an Uber driver,” he said.
AC Transit plans 16% cuts if tax fails
Robert Lyles, media manager for AC Transit, reports that the agency is projecting annual budget deficits of $50 million per year beginning in 2028.
He said the transit tax would raise about $58 million in additional revenue annually, an infusion that would cover the deficit.
Lyles notes that about 65% of AC Transit riders are low-income, with six-in-10 earning less than $50,000 a year. Three out of every four riders are people of color. In addition, about 65% of AC Transit riders don’t have access to a car.
“For many, AC Transit isn’t simply a transportation option. It is the only way to get to work, school, medical appointments and the essential services of daily life,” Lyles said.
AC Transit has a Contingency Service Plan that’s based on service cuts of 16% and will hold two public hearings in Oakland and online on Oct. 14.
Lyles said under this worst-case scenario plan 93% of AC Transit bus lines would remain in service. On most weekdays, primary lines would continue to run every 15 minutes.
Lyles said the contingency plan also protects services that about 30,000 students use to get to and from school.
“For thousands of students across our service area, an AC Transit bus is not simply a ride to school. It is the connection to the classroom, breakfast programs and after-school activities,” Lyles said.
However, some bus lines could be reduced to operating every 30 minutes. In addition, transbay and overnight bus service could be cut significantly.
Overall, the contingency plan calls for the removal of 100 AC Transit buses from daily service.
AC Transit riders interviewed by Richmondside at bus stops on San Pablo Avenue say service cuts would impact their daily lives.
Diana Castro, a Richmond resident, and Chhitiz Rajbanshi, a San Pablo resident, both catch an AC Transit bus at San Pablo and Garvin avenues to get to their nursing classes at Contra Costa College.
They said the ride costs only $1.37 and the frequency makes it convenient for them to get to campus. If the buses came less frequently, they might have to dig into their monthly income to solicit an on-demand ride service.
Cherng Saenzsourith, a Hercules resident, catches a WestCAT bus at about 6 a.m. most mornings to the El Cerrito del Norte station. From there, he grabs an AC Transit bus to the Garvin Avenue stop to visit his girlfriend at a nearby rehabilitation center. He makes a return trip at about 2 p.m. most days.
“Without a bus, I guess I would have to walk and that’s a long walk,” he said with a laugh.
Reggie Findy, a Richmond resident who works in the cardiology department at Alta Bates Summit Medical Center in Berkeley, grabs a Garvin Avenue bus in the early afternoons to get to the El Cerrito BART station, where he catches a train to Berkeley.
Without the bus, he would have to walk from his home to the El Cerrito station.
Transit officials say these are the real-life impacts cuts in bus and train service would have.
“Riders everywhere would be impacted,” said Ghosh, who said that as a BART director she can’t take a position on Proposition RTM but she can discuss the impacts of transit service cuts.
How cuts could affect those who don’t use public transit
Ghosh and others are quick to point out that Bay Area residents who don’t use public transportation to get around could also be affected if those services are reduced.
The Bumper to Bumper report was recently published by SPUR, a nonprofit think tank that has endorsed Proposition RTM as well as Proposition H, a San Francisco Muni parcel tax.
The report predicts that rush hour traffic on the Bay Bridge could double from 30 minutes to one hour if both measures fail and transit riders start driving to work.
The report also projects that rush hour traffic at the Caldecott Tunnel in the Oakland hills could increase by more than 20%.
Similar traffic jams are projected for the Highway 24/Interstate 680 interchange in Walnut Creek.
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Whether you ride transit or not, no one will be spared the dire impacts from the dramatic service cuts.”
— Libby Schaaf, president and chief executive officer of the Bay Area Council
Cretan said Richmond residents would notice the traffic impacts on Interstate 80 and other roads.
“Transit riders will be in their cars and those cars will be on the road with you,” he said.
Ghosh agrees with that assertion.
“Some of the 200,000 people who take BART every day will now be on the freeway,” she said.
Ghosh also points out that BART service reductions could impact the city’s plan to revitalize downtown Richmond.
“BART has the ability to make Richmond a regional destination,” she said.
Cretan notes that shoppers as well as people who work in Richmond might find it more difficult to travel here.
“Even if you aren’t a transit rider, other people in your life are,” he said.
That sentiment is echoed in the SPUR report, which projects $3,280 in additional annual transportation costs for displaced riders as well as $476 million in lost productivity annually and 184,000 metric tons of carbon dioxide added to the air every year.
“Whether you ride transit or not, no one will be spared the dire impacts from the dramatic service cuts that will occur if we fail to pass the Regional Transit Measure,” said Libby Schaaf, president and chief executive officer of the Bay Area Council, in a press release sent out by Connect Bay Area. “From store clerks to security guards, nurses to teachers, students to seniors, everyone will feel the pain and cost of a region with less transit.”
More election news
Read Richmondside’s 2026 voter guide for more information about the Nov. 3 election, from key dates and voter resources to who is running for local offices.
