BART went first. Now, another key transit agency serving Oakland has created a contingency plan to give the public a sense of what service would be like without a big financial lifeline.
AC Transit staff, at a meeting of its board of directors last week, said that without voter approval of a tax measure in November, which promises to raise $1 billion a year for 14 years for Bay Area transit, the agency projects deficits of $50 million a year beginning in the 2027-28 fiscal year.
One of the scenarios to close that gap in the agency’s mildly named Alternate Service Plan could reduce costs by up to $53 million annually by cutting 16.4% of current service, which already sits at 85% of pre-pandemic levels. Another scenario would reduce costs by $36.75 million and cut bus service by 11.45% of current levels.
“Without sustainable funding, service reductions are unavoidable,” read a slide in the agency’s presentation.
The agency’s yearly operating budget is between $600 and $700 million.
The agency, which serves Richmond, Oakland, Berkeley, and other East Bay cities, recently completed a years-long realignment to adjust its service lines, headways, and bus schedules to better fit its declining budget. Those changes have led to some riders losing their favorite lines — and to concerns about the business’s quality of service.
The AC Transit board voted to approve the service reduction framework.
Asked about the doomsday scenario, AC Transit board director Sarah Syed said that her agency was simply “planning for the worst while fighting for better.“
“This framework helps prepare us for a potential funding shortfall. Service cuts hit those who depend on transit the hardest, and I remain committed to protecting equitable access across our system,” she said.
At an earlier meeting of the AC Transit board, on March 11, agency staff said the numbers they came up with for the alternate plan were months in the making and were developed by a budget task force reporting to General Manager Salvador Llamas.
The alternate budget will now be discussed at the BART–AC Transit interagency meeting this Wednesday, April 1, at the East Bay Paratransit Office, 1750 Broadway, in Oakland. BART staff have already said that if voters don’t approve the November ballot measure, the agency will be forced to implement significant service changes, including possibly ending some evening and weekend service and raising fares. It might also lead to the closing of some of the least-used stations and lines.
Night workers ‘could be stranded’
At the March 11 meeting, AC Transit staff told the board that the current fiscal year’s budget has already been affected by unexpected costs, increasing the deficit. Chris Andrichak, the agency’s Chief Financial Officer, said that for the 2025-2206 fiscal year, they underestimated the costs of pension payments, legal settlements, and repairs for the fleet’s aging buses.
Richard Oslund, AC Transit’s director of management and budget, said they “were gonna come in pretty close” in their projected payroll spending, “maybe a little bit over budget.”
The alternate service plan, according to staff, will aim to keep buses running on its Primary Route Network, which serves areas in the East Bay with the highest population density and ridership, as well as people living in equity-priority communities. The lines that fit those parameters are the 1T, 6, 9, 12, 14, 18, 27, 30/31, 36, 40, 51A, 51B, 52, 54, 57, 62, 72/72M, 72L, 73, 76, 88, 97, 210/211, F, and NL. Richmond is currently served by the 70, 71, 72M, 74, 76, 376, 607, 667, 668, 675, 684, and 800 lines, among others.
But the agency has said the least-used lines are at risk of elimination. Route 281, serving Fremont, Union City, and Newark, with 8.1 passengers per hour; Route 19, which runs from Downtown Oakland through Alameda and into the Fruitvale, with 8.7 per hour; and and 56, which runs from the Union Transit Landing Center in Union City to the Hayward BART, with 10.1 passengers per hour, are likely on the chopping block.
“If we lose night service for AC Transit and BART, people who work at night would be stranded on one side of the Bay,” she said.
Despite the grim budget projections, Llamas, the general manager, wrote in the report, the agency will seek to maintain aspects of the restructuring that staff spent the last few years developing alongside bus drivers and riders.
“Overall, staff will attempt to avoid segment modifications/eliminations that greatly alter the route network recently created under Realign,” Llamas wrote.
